The latest entry in the Predator franchise, Prey, has been a breakout success. The fifth film in the movie series has scored the best reviews of any Predator film, has received praise from audiences, and breathed new life into the Predator franchise. Hulu boasted the film was the most successful original launch on the streaming service above any other previous film or television series, yet no full numbers were provided.
Ever since Prey was announced as a Hulu exclusive, many have wondered why this film in a legacy film franchise was not getting the big screen treatment, and many fans have complained that they were robbed from not seeing Prey in theaters. August has notably been a wild month for summer movies, having the potential for a non-conventional film to be a big breakout hit. After a stacked summer movie season that saw big films opening on top of each other, August 2022 has been left notably vacant with the last big spectacle film being Bullet Train. Offerings are so slim that Top Gun: Maverick, in its 12th weekend of release, managed to take the number two spot.
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It feels like Disney and 20th Century Pictures missed out on a potential box office winner with Prey. But why was the film released on streaming, and what would its potential box office chances have been? Looking at the past Predator film releases indicates how Prey might have performed, and looking at two other film franchises might indicate where Prey could have gone in terms of the box office.
Predator Box Office Has Never Been Remarkable
Hulu
Unlike the Alien franchise, which had both Alien and Aliens in the top 10 of their respective years, the Predator franchise has been a much smaller box office draw, with most of the series’ success coming from merchandising. In 1987, Predator was a box office hit, grossing $59 million domestically on an $18 million budget. 20th Century Fox quickly capitalized on a sequel and released Predator 2 in 1990, but that film grossed $30 million domestic against a budget that matched that.
The box office disappointment doomed the Predator franchise into dormancy for 14 years until the release of Alien vs Predator, in which the combined benefit of the two movie monsters made it the biggest opening weekend and biggest box office earner of any film in the Predator series. However, the lightning didn’t strike twist for Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem. In the summer of 2010, Predators was released and grossed $52 million domestic against a $40 million budget. While successful, the film was not the major hit Fox wanted and Predators was quickly overshadowed by the film it opened the same weekend as, Despicable Me.
20th Century Fox
In 2018, The Predator was set to relaunch the franchise, and the studio gave it an increased budget of $88 million to maximize profits; however, the film made $51 million domestically and overall seemed to indicate that the Predator franchise was not a box office draw (the movie did $160 million worldwide though). Looking at both Predator films released since 2010, Predators opened to $24.8 million while The Predator grossed almost exactly that, with $24 million in its opening weekend.
Assuming audiences were not put off by the previous films, Prey might have also opened to a $24 million opening weekend using the previous two films as a baseline. It likely would not have topped Bullet Train’s $30.4 million (although it is also possible Prey could have taken viewers away from Bullet Train), but would still have been a respectable opening. The question is how much it would have dropped in the following weeks, as Predators fell to the number eight spot in its second weekend with a 71.7% drop, while The Predator fell to number four with a 62.7% drop. A moderate box office opening could be offset if a movie has a stronghold and, as indicated by what films were released the second weekend of August, Prey would not have faced much competition. Plus, Prey has gotten some of the best word-of-mouth of any streaming release this year, which likely would have translated to continued ticket sales.
20th Century Fox Had a Previous Deal With HBO
In 2012, 20th Century Fox made a deal with HBO to make the premium cable network home to the studio’s films after their theatrical window, and the deal was set for 10 years. The creation of HBO Max meant that it would be the service for 20th Century Fox films, making the streamer a must-have for filmgoers. When Disney acquired 20th Century Fox in 2019, the deal with HBO was still in effect, meaning that Disney had to honor it and no movie in production or filmed for theatrical release could go to Disney-owned streaming services like Disney+ or Hulu. This is why during the COVID-19 pandemic, none of the 20th Century Fox films like New Mutants, Death on the Nile, The Bob’s Burger’s Movie, or The Kings Man could be sent to Hulu. If they were sent to streaming, it would have to go to HBO Max, and Disney did not want to give their competitor a new streaming film.
Hulu originals have primarily been on the smaller side, purchasing critically praised films like Nomadland and Palm Springs, or the holiday film Happiest Season. Yet they had not had a big franchise premiere the same way Disney+ or HBO Max had during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prey, being part of a popular but not immediate box office hit franchise like Predator, made it ideal for the studio to release on streaming. It could help drive subscribers due to the recognition of the iconic brand, and because it was not made for theaters, it could go straight to Hulu, and possibly avoid any similar negative box office headlines the previous film generated.
Disney looks to be using the 20th Century Fox (now named 20th Century Pictures) brands to help create original material to boost Hulu, as they also have announced plans for a new Alien film on the platform in addition to a reboot of The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen.
Prey Could Have Suffered From Past Franchise Mistakes
Prey’s strong word of mouth and positive audience reaction online has one caveat that prevents a direct translation to the box office profit: not everyone who watched it on Hulu would have gone out to a theater and seen it. Not in the opening weekend, possibly later if the word of mouth was strong, but it is easier for audiences to watch it on a streaming service they already own in the comfort of their home as opposed to going out to the theater. In many ways, Prey being available on streaming might have exposed it to more people than those who would have seen it in theaters.
The other issue is that a strong word of mouth doesn’t always translate to box office success. The best example in recent years is Terminator: Dark Fate, which was seen as a redemption for the franchise after three disappointing sequels. The problem was audiences had been burned out by Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, Terminator: Salvation, and Terminator: Genisys. Terminator: Dark Fate, despite gaining fans, was a box office bomb and was a victim of the crimes of the previous entries. The Predator in 2018 was billed as the big event Predator film, but poor reviews and a mediocre audience reaction likely would have been an uphill battle for Prey.
On the Other Hand, Prey’s Word of Mouth is Different
In a strange coincidence, Prey’s release date of August 5 was also the same day that Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened back in 2011. That film, like Prey, was a dramatically lower-budget reimagining of a popular 20th Century Fox sci-fi franchise that also had a poorly received previous film. Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened to $54 million, above expectations, managed to hold the top spot for its second weekend, and dropped to number two in its third weekend. Rise of the Planet of the Apes benefited from strong word of mouth from critics and audiences and there is a chance the same could have benefited Prey.
August 2022 is a particularly slow month for big summer movies. Aside from Bullet Train, the majority of the films set for release are smaller genre films like Bodies Bodies Bodies, The Fall, and Beast, or films from the festival circuit like Emily the Criminal, Breaking, and A Thousand Long Years of Waiting. All of those movies have the potential to be mid-budget hits, but it feels like the ideal box office climate to release a new Predator movie, as there is little competition. Even if Prey did not take the number one spot in its opening weekend against Bullet Train, it likely would have held better and possibly taken the top spot in its second weekend. Prey’s budget has not been revealed yet, but it likely cost less than 2018’s The Predator and probably would have outgrossed it, making it the first time a solo Predator movie was an unarguable box office hit since 1987. It will be interesting to see if possible Dan Trachtenberg follow-ups to Prey will be released in theaters.
